Latest Market Update - September 2025
After a relatively stagnant week for energy prices, the market has opened this week with a more bullish tone. Attention is now turning to key fundamentals including incoming supply, demand levels, storage capacity and temperature forecasts, as traders begin to assess the risks heading into winter. A colder season would naturally drive up demand, leading to increased withdrawals from storage and a greater reliance on incoming gas supplies.
Norwegian gas output remains reduced due to ongoing planned maintenance, which is expected to continue until the final third of the month. This supply constraint is contributing to upward pressure on prices. On the power side, higher wind generation is forecasted in the coming days, which should support renewable output and ease some of the demand on gas-fired generation.
Temperatures are expected to remain close to seasonal norms into mid-October, with wetter and windier conditions anticipated this week. These conditions are favourable for renewables but may also increase heating demand. Meanwhile, EU gas storage levels continue to build, currently sitting at 79.49% full, offering a solid buffer as we approach the colder months.
